Monday, August 4, 2008

Prediction for the Future of America

In the past, I have been somewhat pessimistic about the future of America. We are too big, have grandiose lifestyles, and too much debt, so it seems inevitable that it will all come crashing down very quickly.

However, if you think about it, the fact that Americans are so demanding is what will drive the country going forward. Americans care too much and are very picky. If you go to third world countries, society is in shambles, and it seems like nobody really cares. What makes America really interesting to me is that the birth rate is pretty high and the population will continue to expand (due to birth rate as well as immigration). A high birth rate is very interesting because in general parents will never let their children turn out to be worse off than they are, and will put in all effort. I think young parents in their 20's and 30's basically make the world go around (thanks for that!) because basically they demand that the future will be better off for the sake of their children. Those of us without children do not have that desire.

I think probably America will continue to become much more prosperous for the next 2-3 generations at least. I think our society is much further advanced in terms of accepting outsiders, for example. I don't see a country like China ready to open up its borders and accept people from all over with open arms. Even, the most talented and skilled Chinese (and Indians, etc.) leave to come to .. America! I don't think a lot of the rest of the world will be able to keep up, and see Latin America and Africa in particular struggling. Asia seems to have a lot more promise. Europe & Japan are hopeless and can only go down from where they are now.

This doesn't mean America is the best place to put your money because even if America is still on top it doesn't mean it will grow as much as other places do. But I doubt anybody has ever gotten rich betting against America. When it seems like everything is going wrong the economy continues to march on strongly.

I wonder if during my lifetime people will ever be 'priced out of America'. To some extent you see this happening already with plenty of boomers moving to Mexico, Panama, etc. for their retirement. As long as there is a steady supply of illegal immigrants to do the work the rest of us refuse to do (who to some extent are also priced out, because they live in unconventional conditions and remain here only to work, not generally to stay long periods), and as technology develops and automates more mundane jobs, and highly-skilled immigrants (who uplift all of our skills) continue to pour in, I wonder what the future is for the blue collar work in America. It seems like it can disappear. I believe there will always be strong demand for college-educated English speaking people, at least for the next several generations, possibly for English speaking people in general. I think people in this class are basically guaranteed an extremely bright future.

Anyways ..

2 comments:

Philip said...

Wow, a very interesting and unexpected point of view coming from you! I had not previously considered the drive that comes from parents in this way. Certainly something worth pondering. Thanks

Bill in NC said...

When you're on a fixed income, moving to another country with much lower costs makes sense.

There can be other incentives as well

e.g. Canadians who emigrate to Mexico to retire only pay a maximum 15% tax on their retirement benefits (pension, RRSP [like a 401k], etc.)

And as emigrants pay no tax on income rec'd from sources outside of Canada or Mexico.

That's a heck of a better deal than U.S. expats get (still pay taxes on their worldwide income)